Hamburg, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

991
FXUS61 KBUF 021045
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
645 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly drift from the Ohio Valley to off the
Carolina coast during the first half of the week...while providing
us with fair dry weather. After an unseasonably chilly start to this
morning...the high will also usher in a significant day to day
warming trend that will culminate in mid-summerlike heat on
Wednesday. A slow moving frontal system will then bring renewed
chances of showers and thunderstorms later on in the week...along
with temperatures merely falling back to typical early June levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As we push through the day...broad high pressure over the Ohio
Valley will drift eastward across the Mid Atlantic States. Plentiful
dry air and subsidence attendant to the high will allow for copious
amounts of sunshine...with just some thin wildfire smoke passing
through the region well aloft. Coupled with warm air advection...
this will allow temperatures to finally rebound back to much more
seasonable levels (upper 60s to lower 70s) today.

Tonight the center of the large surface high will make its way to
the Virginia-North Carolina border...while a weak warm frontal
boundary pushes eastward across Southern Ontario. While isentropic
ascent and moisture along this feature may be just enough to touch
off a few spotty showers north of Lake Ontario...the airmass across
our area looks to be too dry to support pcpn...with just a modest
increase in mid and high cloud cover therefore expected in
association with this boundary. Otherwise continued warm advection
will allow for a considerably milder night...with lows ranging from
the lower-mid 40s across interior portions of the Southern Tier/
North Country to the lower to mid 50s across the lake plains of far
Western New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong ridging aloft with surface high pressure settling off the Mid
Atlantic coast will help to build heat into the region through mid
week. A healthy push of warm air advection will favor the onset of a
notable warm up this period, with temperatures peaking Wednesday in
the mid 80s to around 90F. The warmest readings will be in the
valleys and inland from any immediate influence from the lakes.
Dewpoints remaining under 65F, so although the warmth will be
noticeable from what we have experienced of late, significant heat
related issues are not expected.

Profiles are dry underneath the ridge, so no precipitation is
expected through Wednesday, before a flattening of the ridge begins
with the approach of a shortwave trough and cold front Wednesday
night, which may force some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Northwest flow will advect an abundance of elevated Canadian wildfire
smoke into the region during the period. This area of incoming smoke
will likely obscure the sun at times, similar to the way a cirrus
level shield might with a hazy or milky appearance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A much more unsettled pattern this period as a broad positively
tilted trough and stalled elongated frontal boundary to our
northwest across the Great Lakes and Quebec very slowly crosses the
region. Deep southwest flow extending back to the southern Plains
will open the door to a stream of Gulf-based moisture, with several
waves of sfc low pressure riding along the boundary as it moves
through bringing several rounds of showers through at least Friday.
Timing of these rounds remains somewhat uncertain in addition to
thunderstorm chances, though peak potential looks to be inland from
the lakes Thursday and Friday afternoons.

The front will finally manage to cross the region sometime Friday
evening/night, with decreasing chances for showers Saturday and
Sunday. Lower-end chances linger through Sunday as with uncertainty
in regards to how quickly the main trough axis moves through behind
this front. Regardless, the frontal passage will allow temperatures
to return to more seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected today courtesy of high
pressure drifting from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States.
The high will then drift to the Virginia/North Carolina border
tonight while maintaining VFR conditions across our area...with just
a modest increase in mid and high cloud cover expected in
association with a weak warm front pushing eastward across Southern
Ontario.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms likely at times with brief/localized restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will over the Ohio Valley will gradually drift to a
position off the Carolina coast during the first half of the week.
This will result in fair weather prevailing across the Lower Great
Lakes through midweek...with a general southwesterly to southerly
flow running in the 10 to 15 knot range much of the time. While this
may induce a light chop at times...conditions are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Looking further out into the latter portions of the week...a slow-
moving frontal system will then bring the risk for some showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR